Key Points
- Reform UK’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas did not achieve his aim of becoming Wales’ next first minister, as Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the expanded Senedd with 43 seats out of 96.
- Reform UK secured 34 seats, making it by far the largest opposition party in the new Senedd chamber.
- Thomas entered Welsh frontline politics just three months before the 7 May 2026 election, appointed by Nigel Farage to lead Reform’s Welsh operation.
- Pre-election polls consistently projected Reform to win substantial seats, with Thomas as the party’s candidate for first minister.
- Thomas was born and raised in Blackwood in the Welsh valleys, with his grandfather and great-grandfather working as miners; he left Wales at 18 due to limited opportunities.
- He worked in financial services in London, became a Conservative councillor in Barnet from 2006 to 2025, led the council from 2019 to 2022, and then served as opposition leader until May 2024.
- Thomas stood as Conservative candidate in Islwyn constituency in 2010 and 2017 general elections, finishing second to Labour’s Chris Evans both times.
- He defected from Conservatives to Reform UK in June 2025, citing the party’s commitment to British culture, identity, and values, and resigned as councillor on 31 December 2025.
- Thomas and his family moved from Barnet to be closer to relatives in south Wales and raise their young sons in the countryside.
- At his first appearance as Welsh leader alongside Farage at a Reform rally in Newport, Thomas emphasised his valleys roots.
Cardiff Bay (Cardiff Daily) May 9, 2026 –
Dan Thomas, the former leader of Barnet Council in north London, has quickly risen to lead Reform UK’s Welsh branch, positioning the party as the primary opposition in the newly expanded Senedd.
Although Reform UK under Thomas did not secure the top spot – with Plaid Cymru taking 43 seats to Reform’s 34 on 7 May 2026 – the result marks a significant breakthrough for a party entering the contest with limited prior presence in Wales. Thomas was selected by Nigel Farage just three months prior, amid polls forecasting strong gains.
As reported by BBC News, Thomas highlighted his Welsh heritage during his debut as leader at a Reform rally in Newport alongside Farage, stating he was
“born and raised in the Welsh valleys, where my family lived for generations”.
He noted that both his grandfather and great-grandfather were miners, and spoke of leaving Wales as an adult because opportunities were “few and between”.
Wikipedia details that Thomas, born around 1981 in Blackwood, Caerphilly, studied A-levels at Coleg Gwent in Crosskeys before departing in 1999 at age 18 due to a “lack of opportunities”.
What Was Dan Thomas’s Political Career in London?
Thomas built his political experience in London after moving there for work in financial services and retail banking. He served as a Conservative councillor on Barnet London Borough Council from 2006 to 2025, becoming council leader from 2019 to 2022, then opposition leader after Labour gained control until May 2024. In June 2025, Thomas defected to Reform UK, explaining:
“I joined Reform because of their unwavering commitment to defending British culture, identity, and values”,
as per Wikipedia.
He resigned from the council on 31 December 2025, avoiding a by-election ahead of the Senedd vote, with local media noting the move allowed him and his wife to raise their two young sons in the countryside closer to south Wales family.
Earlier, Thomas contested the Islwyn constituency as Conservative in the 2010 and 2017 general elections, placing second to Labour’s Chris Evans on both occasions. In 2016, he ran for the London Assembly in Barnet and Camden, and in 2018 faced calls to resign as deputy leader over a council fraud scandal involving a worker who stole £2 million via Capita, though no direct involvement was attributed to him.
Left Foot Forward reported criticism of his Reform appointment, noting he led Barnet until Labour took over in 2022 before defecting last summer.
How Did Reform UK Perform in the 2026 Senedd Election?
The expanded Senedd, now with 96 seats, saw Plaid Cymru become the largest party with 43 seats, followed by Reform UK on 34, Labour on nine, Conservatives on seven, Greens on two, and Liberal Democrats on one, according to ITV News Wales and The Guardian.
This outcome ended Labour’s long dominance, with Reform achieving clear second place despite winning just 1% in the prior election.
YouGov’s MRP polls had predicted this shift: the first showed Plaid on 43 and Reform on 30, while the second indicated a tight race with Reform at 37 and Plaid at 36. ITV News Wales confirmed Plaid’s historic first as largest party but short of the 49 for a majority. Reform’s Dan Thomas was elected in Casnewydd Islwyn alongside Art Wright, per WhoCanIVoteFor and Wikipedia.
BBC analysis questioned the scale of Labour’s defeat, while Cardiff University projections aligned with the final tallies.
Why Did Nigel Farage Choose Dan Thomas for Wales?
Nigel Farage announced Thomas as Reform UK Wales leader on 5 February 2026, praising his return to the valleys: “He has voluntarily left London, come back to the Valleys, living in Islwyn, come back to his home, and he’s done that because he loves Wales”, as quoted on Wikipedia. BBC reported Farage’s visit to Merthyr Tydfil where Reform challenged rivals on manifesto costings.
Media speculation arose over Thomas’s residence, with Nation.Cymru citing a source claiming a move to Bath, England; Reform refuted this, confirming he lives in Wales, owns rental property in Bath, and was added to Caerphilly’s electoral roll in July 2025, verified by ITV Wales. Thomas appointed Helen Jenner as deputy leader amid selection controversies.
WalesOnline covered the Newport rally where Thomas reflected on limited jobs for young Welsh people.
What Are Plaid Cymru’s Plans After Becoming Largest Party?
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth stated intentions for a minority government, as linked in the original coverage and reported by BBC. In a Gwledyddau podcast on BBC Cymru, ap Iorwerth said polls validated Plaid’s potential to lead a minority administration, collaborating case-by-case without formal coalition. The Guardian noted his “roadmap” for the first 100 days, expressing readiness to govern and cooperate where possible.
This aligns with post-election reports of Plaid holding 43 seats, insufficient for majority.
Background of the Development
The 2026 Senedd election expanded the chamber to 96 members, using a mix of constituency and proportional representation, amid national shifts following Reform UK’s UK-wide gains. Pre-election YouGov MRP models from early 2026 highlighted voter dissatisfaction with Labour and Conservatives, boosting Reform and Plaid. Thomas’s defection in June 2025 was part of a wave of Conservatives joining Reform, reflecting party realignments. Polls like Cardiff University’s final projection matched the outcome, with Reform surging from minimal prior support. Plaid’s push for minority rule builds on years of growing influence in Welsh politics.
Prediction: How This Affects Welsh Voters
This development positions Reform UK as the main opposition with 34 seats, enabling Thomas’s group to scrutinise Plaid’s minority government closely on issues like economy and opportunities. Welsh voters may see intensified debates on limited jobs in the valleys, as Thomas’s background highlights, potentially pressuring Plaid on regional development. Labour’s drop to nine seats reduces their influence, shifting power dynamics where Reform can block or amend legislation, affecting policy on housing, health, and devolved matters for everyday residents in areas like Caerphilly and Islwyn. Plaid’s collaboration needs could lead to cross-party deals, impacting voters through compromises on priorities like Welsh language and environment. Overall, the opposition strength gives voters a louder voice against government proposals in the expanded chamber.
