Key Points
- Major eve-of-election polls showed Labour on course for its worst-ever results in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd.
- The polling suggested the SNP would retain control in Holyrood, while Plaid Cymru would sweep to power in Cardiff Bay.
- YouGov’s MRP analysis projected Reform UK as the largest opposition party in both parliaments despite having no seats in either when they were last fully contested.
- In Scotland, Labour and the Conservatives were projected to win 17 and 7 seats respectively, which would be their worst-ever results, alongside gains for the Scottish Greens.
- In Wales, Labour was projected to win just 12 seats in a 96-seat chamber, with Plaid Cymru on 43 and Reform UK on 34.
- Welsh Labour leader Baroness Morgan said Sir Keir Starmer “comes up as an issue on the doorstep”, and warned the party could lose control because voters wanted to “pick a fight” with him over national rather than local issues.
Cardiff (Cardiff Daily) May 19, 2026 – Major eve-of-election polling suggested Labour was facing a severe setback across both Scotland and Wales, with the party on course for its weakest performance in either devolved legislature.
The projection, reported by the Daily Mail, said the SNP was expected to keep control of Holyrood, while Plaid Cymru was forecast to take power in Cardiff Bay. The same analysis suggested Reform UK could become the largest opposition force in both parliaments, despite not holding seats when those chambers were last fully contested.
What did the polling show?
The YouGov MRP analysis pointed to a sharp weakening of Labour’s position in both nations. In Scotland, Labour and the Conservatives were projected to win 17 and 7 seats respectively, which the report described as their worst-ever results. It also indicated a rise in support for the Scottish Greens.
In Wales, the same polling suggested Labour could be reduced to 12 seats in the newly enlarged 96-seat Senedd. By contrast, Plaid Cymru was projected on 43 seats and Reform UK on 34, leaving Labour as only the third party in the chamber. The report said this would be Labour’s worst major election result in Wales for more than 100 years.
Why is Labour under pressure?
The report linked Labour’s difficulties to Sir Keir Starmer’s standing on the doorstep. Welsh Labour leader Baroness Morgan said the Prime Minister
“comes up as an issue on the doorstep”,
suggesting voters were framing devolved elections through the lens of national politics. She also said the party could lose control of the Senedd because the public wanted to “pick a fight” with Sir Keir over national rather than local issues.
The article also said Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was among the first party figures to call for Sir Keir to quit, amid fears that he was “poison on the doorstep”. That claim underscored the scale of concern inside Labour as polling day approached.
What does the result mean politically?
If the polling were to be reflected in the final result, Labour would face a major setback in both devolved nations.
In Scotland, it would remain far behind the SNP and struggling to recover ground after years of limited progress.
In Wales, the loss of power would end Labour’s long hold on government in Cardiff Bay and mark a major realignment in the Senedd.
The projections also point to a more fragmented political landscape, with Reform UK emerging as a significant force in both legislatures.
That would make opposition politics more complicated for Labour and could reshape debate around immigration, governance and constitutional issues.
Background of this development
Labour has historically depended on strong support in Wales and, at different points, Scotland to bolster its wider UK influence.
The report described the Welsh result as potentially the party’s worst major election performance in the country for more than a century.
It also noted that the devolved chambers in Scotland and Wales were last fully contested before Reform UK had any seats there, which makes the party’s projected rise especially notable.
The article’s central theme was that national leadership, rather than local policy, was dominating voter attitudes. That is why Sir Keir Starmer’s standing appeared repeatedly in comments from Labour figures.
Prediction for voters
For Labour voters in Scotland and Wales, the immediate effect would likely be disappointment and pressure for internal change if the polling translated into seats. For nationalist voters, especially those backing the SNP or Plaid Cymru, the projections suggest their parties could continue or strengthen control over devolved politics. For voters drawn to Reform UK, the development indicates that the party could become a much louder opposition voice even without previous representation in these chambers.
More broadly, the projections suggest that future devolved elections may be fought less on local administration alone and more on attitudes to Westminster leadership. That would mean UK-level politics could continue to shape outcomes in Cardiff and Edinburgh as strongly as domestic devolved issues.
