Cardiff University in HEPI Risk Report (Cardiff, 2026)

Key Points

• Cardiff University is mentioned in a Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) report warning about excessive financial risk-taking by UK universities.
• The report, authored by Tom Richmond, highlights rapid student number growth, overreliance on international students, high borrowing levels, and franchised programmes as key risks across the sector.
• Examples include Canterbury Christ Church University tripling in size and Arden University growing over 30 times in a decade; 10 institutions accept over 5,000 Chinese students annually, and five take over 5,000 from India.
• Cardiff University denies engaging in “excessive risk-taking,” as reported by The Tab.
• The report proposes an eight-measure “toolkit” to curb risks without undermining provider autonomy.
• Cardiff faces a £31.2 million deficit for 2023-24, the UK’s largest, leading to plans for 400 job cuts and closures of programmes like nursing, modern languages, music, ancient history, translation, religion, and theology.
• Welsh universities collectively forecast a £70 million deficit, prompting calls for Welsh government intervention.
• HEPI report published on 7 April 2026; coverage emerged around 11-16 April 2026.

Cardiff, Wales (Cardiff Daily) April 16, 2026 – Cardiff University has been named in a Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) report that cautions against excessive financial risk-taking by UK universities, amid the institution’s own £31.2 million deficit and ongoing restructuring.

The report, titled “A Degree of Regulation: Building a More Financially Sustainable and Resilient Higher Education Sector,” identifies multiple providers engaging in practices that threaten their viability and the sector’s stability. As reported by University World News on 11 April 2026, it states:

“Excessive risk-taking by higher education providers must be curtailed”.

Why Has Cardiff University Been Highlighted in the HEPI Report?

Cardiff University’s inclusion stems from broader sector trends like rapid expansion and international student dependency, though the institution rejects the “excessive” label. The Tab reported on 16 April 2026 that

“Cardiff University has denied the institution has ‘engaged in excessive risk-taking.’ The HEPI report suggested that UK universities have been…”.

The HEPI analysis, written by Tom Richmond, a former Department for Education adviser, points to institutions increasing student numbers quickly.

For instance, Canterbury Christ Church University has almost tripled in size over the last decade, while Arden University has expanded over 30 times. It also flags overreliance on international recruitment, with 10 institutions accepting over 5,000 students yearly from China and five from India.

As covered by The Guardian on 9 April 2026, the report warns of

“high levels of borrowing and rapid expansion among dangers identified by Higher Education Policy Institute”.

Franchised programmes, where degree-granting bodies allow others to deliver courses, add further exposure.

Cardiff’s financial strain aligns with these patterns. Times Higher Education noted on 3 February 2025 that Cardiff posted the UK’s biggest operating deficit for 2023-24 at £31.2 million, contributing to a £70 million shortfall across Welsh universities. The university described the model as facing an “existential crisis”.

What Financial Challenges Is Cardiff University Facing?

Cardiff’s deficit has triggered major cuts. A LinkedIn analysis by Hilton Yip Shomron on 30 January 2025 detailed a £31.2 million shortfall, leading to 400 academic staff losses and programme discontinuations in nursing, modern languages, music, ancient history, translation, religion, and theology.

Times Higher Education reported:

“Crisis-hit Cardiff University has recorded UK higher education’s biggest operating deficit yet for 2023-24, with the total shortfall across Welsh institutions forecast to reach £70 million”.

This follows announcements of job axes and discipline closures.

The Economics Observatory on 19 May 2025 referenced Cardiff’s operating surplus/deficit trends from 2015-24, noting vice-chancellor’s statements on becoming a smaller university with fewer domestic students and higher entry tariffs. Universities UK attributes deficits to a “broken fee-based funding model,” “unhealthy competition,” international student policies, and governance issues.

How Does the HEPI Report Address Sector-Wide Risks?

The HEPI report offers a “toolkit” of eight measures to prevent excessive risks while preserving autonomy for prudent providers. University World News quoted:

“The report identifies many examples of providers taking too many risks”.

It urges protecting societal interests amid English higher education’s financial concerns. The Guardian highlighted threats from debt, enrolment surges, international dependency, and franchising.

No specific Cardiff metrics were detailed in HEPI snippets, but its naming ties to these vulnerabilities.

What Is Cardiff University’s Response to the Report?

Cardiff University has directly refuted the characterisation. The Tab stated on 16 April 2026:

“Cardiff University has denied the institution has ‘engaged in excessive risk-taking'”.

This denial addresses the report’s implications for its strategies.

Background of the Development

The HEPI report emerges against a backdrop of UK higher education financial pressures since the 2010s, intensified by frozen domestic fees, post-Brexit international recruitment shifts, and inflation. Cardiff’s challenges echo historical issues, such as the 1980s University College Cardiff crisis, where deficits led to mergers and reforms, as analysed by the Economics Observatory.

Recent Welsh sector woes, including the £70 million collective deficit, have mounted pressure on governments, with Universities UK calling for funding model reviews. The report by Tom Richmond builds on prior HEPI work, responding to 2023-24 accounts revealing widespread shortfalls, including Cardiff’s record deficit.

Prediction: How This Development Can Affect Students

This development can affect students through potential programme cuts reducing course options, as seen with Cardiff’s closures in nursing and languages, limiting access to specialised education. Job losses of 400 staff may raise student-to-staff ratios, impacting teaching quality and support.

Financial instability could lead to higher fees or recruitment pauses, affecting affordability and entry for domestic and international applicants. Sector-wide risks might trigger consolidations, closing smaller institutions and concentrating opportunities in fewer universities. Students in risky providers face degree completion uncertainties if institutions fail, while regulatory “toolkit” measures could stabilise finances long-term but initially constrain programme diversity. In Wales, the £70 million deficit may strain regional opportunities, pushing students elsewhere.